Why Strategy Is Failing in the Age of Radical Uncertainty

Boards, CEOs, and even Spencer Stuart are missing the point.

As we lurch into what one CEO in a recent Spencer Stuart survey called “the biggest paradigm shift in human history, led by generative AI,” a disturbing truth becomes hard to ignore: neither boards nor CEOs are remotely equipped for the level of radical uncertainty confronting them.

The “Measure of Leadership: CEOs and Directors on Navigating Change” survey, conducted in early 2024 among over 1,000 CEOs and nearly 1,300 directors, reveals the scale of the gap:

- 78% of leaders report a high level of business uncertainty.

- 25% say their organisations are “sluggish” in responding to new challenges.

- While 87% of board directors trust in their CEO’s readiness, just 32% of CEOs say they have strong confidence in their boards to help guide them through complexity.

This points not to a problem of leadership personalities, but of leadership. Traditional strategy approaches assume a world that can be predicted and managed in siloes. That world is gone.

The problem is compounded by flawed assumptions about organisational culture and structure.

Spencer Stuart’s recommendations that “culture can be changed” and “siloes can be broken down” sound appealing, but are misleading. Cultures are not levers that can simply be pulled—they are emergent properties of deep, persistent organisational dynamics. At best, they can be intentionally influenced over time through coherent action and patience. And as Gillian Tett famously argued in The Silo Effect, siloes cannot be “broken down” without causing collateral damage. They exist for a reason. The real work is to make siloes work together—to connect rather than collapse them.

The underlying challenge is what Paul Barnett, Founder of the Enlightened Enterprise Academy, calls “the systems thinking capabilities gap.” In most organisations, systems thinking—understanding feedback loops, unintended consequences, and the interdependence of forces—is still marginal, if present at all. Without it, companies are condemned to respond to complexity with linear thinking, policy patches, or worse, denial.

Events in 2025 have only underscored this crisis. Since President Trump’s re-election and his declaration of “Liberation Day” tariffs, the global economic landscape has become more volatile and unpredictable than ever. These tariffs, which imposed sweeping duties across a vast range of imports before being partially reversed, triggered whiplash in global markets. The S&P 500 saw a 10.1% decline within days, and businesses struggled to respond to yet another policy shift made without warning.

In this context, boardroom optimism becomes delusion. Linear, siloed approaches to strategy fail not because leaders aren’t working hard, but because they are working with the wrong tools. It’s no longer enough to be “nimble.” What’s required is an entirely new orientation—where systems thinking and strategic thinking are integrated, where culture is nurtured rather than engineered, and where complexity is embraced rather than feared.

JOIN US FOR A DIRETOR AND EXECUTIVE ROUND TABLE RETREAT

To help close this gap, we are convening a high-level Roundtable Retreat for Directors and Executives: "Strategy in an Age of Radical Uncertainty."

Now is the time to rethink not just what we do—but how we think.

This immersive gathering will explore why to be ready for what’s next, directors and executives must learn to think in systems—and act with strategic intent. Nothing less will suffice.

Details and registration are available from andrew.firth@aperture-strategy.co.uk or paul@enlightenedenterprise.ac

More information on the event can also be found in this recent article: 12 seats. Bold Conversations. Infinite Relevance. | LinkedIn